Lessons And Pointers From Hulu Selangor

From http://kadirjasin.blogspot.com/

THERE was no single factor that determined the outcome of the April 25 Hulu Selangor parliamentary by-election. It was the combination of many.

So let us go through some statistics and established facts to understand what had happened.

For all the resources and tactics employed by both sides, the result was not spectacular. The seat went back to the Barisan Nasional, but the majority it received was nothing to shout about.

Yes, a victory is a victory. But with a mere difference of 3.57 per cent in the popular votes -- 51.78 per cent for BN and 48.21 per cent for PKR – Hulu Selangor remains a marginal seat.

The BN might have recovered sufficiently from the March 8, 2008 general elections debacle to wrest the seat from the PKR, which stole it with an even smaller majority – 198 votes, but the margin was still too narrow to suggest that the grand old coalition has return to its former glory.

Simply put, while the PKR lost the seat at the time when it needed the victory the most, the BN is yet to recover its former strength.

Price of Over-Confidence

In fact, had the PKR put up a strong local candidate, the outcome could have been different. But its over-confidence and miscalculation was a blessing for the BN.

Clearly, when deciding on which candidate to choose, the voters decided to take chances with an untainted BN novice over the PKR’s better-known former BN minister.

It could be said that the PKR made a serious tactical oversight. Having suffered a series of resignations by its elected representatives, some of whom were former Umno leaders, choosing a recently defected Umno minister as its candidate could not be considered a coherent decision.

But did the PKR really have a choice? Mohd Zaid Ibrahim was an important catch for the PKR. He was a former Minister, a confidant of the former Prime Minister, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi and above he’s seen as the future hope of the Pakatan Rakyat.

He’s the pro-tem chairman of the PR organising committee and is leading the formal registration of the opposition alliance.

Above all, he enjoy the confidence of the DAP. This is important because the DAP is the leading party of the Pakatan.
Mohd Zaid may even enjoy wider acceptable of Pas leaders after he openly declared his "taubat” (repentance) for his past sins.

He declared the “taubat” in response to allegations that he was a drinker and a gambler. He admitted to drinking and acknowledged that he owns several successful racehorses.

The Victory of A Dark Horse

Kamalanathan was a dark horse. The odds were stacked against him. He was never anybody’s the first choice.

To begin with, there was a strong clamour by Umno and the local Malays, who make up almost 54 per cent of registered electors, for the seat to be returned to Umno. Hulu Selangor used to be an Umno seat.

He comes from the MIC, a junior partner of the BN, and most importantly, he was not the preferred choice of his party.

The MIC leadership wanted the deputy president and the vanquished BN 2008 candidate, G. Palanivel, but was not agreed to by the BN leadership after being sufficiently convinced that Palanivel was going to be hard to sell.

His closeness to party president, S Samy Vellu, was seen as a liability and his service record as MP was questioned.

Kamalanathan, a public relations officer with a Bernas company, and hailed from nearby Rawang, proved be a good choice. His command of the Malay language is superb and his personality is pleasant.

Accordingly, a sufficient number of Malay and Indian voters who sided with the PKR in the 2008 general elections, mostly for the dislike of Palanivel, returned to the BN’s fold, but the majority of Chinese voters remained locked to the opposition via the DAP.

This proved once again that the Malays and Indian voters were more malleable while the Chinese were single-minded in their rejection of the BN.

The BN Chinese Parties Are Weak

The Chinese-based BN parties -- the MCA and Gerakan –are clearly a poor second fiddle to the DAP. The recent changes in the MCA have clearly affected the readiness of the party’s local machinery.

More pictures of the defeated former president, Ong Tee Keat, were on display while his successor, Dr Chua Soi Lek, looked awkward during the campaigning. He has a lot of catching up to do.

The voting pattern of the Chinese merits deeper scrutiny as on-the-spot financial grants and promises of development for their communities did not translate into votes for the BN.

It may even suggest that the Chinese are yet to be convinced by Prime Minister Mohd Najib Abdul Razak’s 1Malaysia and his economic packages announced so far.

Also it’s not yet the time to shout about the acceptance of 1Malaysia when a whopping 48-per cent of the voters did side with the BN.

Clearly too, the Malays and Indians are more closely tied to the government due partly to their inferior economic status compared to the Chinese.

Perhaps future policy and programmes to uplift the standard of living of the people should be targeted towards the Bumiputeras and the minority Indians since the Chinese, via their voting pattern, had sent a strong signal to the BN that they are not in dire need of the government.

In any case, members of the Chinese mercantile community will be able to fend for themselves and will continue to be in the position to suck up the bulk of government expenditure through their extensive control of the supply chain.

Finally, the future is not about parties and policies alone. The choice of candidates could prove to be the linchpin. The people have had enough of the same tired old faces and the “recycled” politicians.

Neither the BN nor the PR can claim to be in tune with time if at the next general election, they do not spice up their line-up with at least 30 to 40 per cent new faces.

Kamalanathan’s victory over Mohd Zaid clearly shows that the majority of the people want clean, untainted and unburdened leaders. For the BN voters, especially the majority Malays, race comes second.